Bhabanipur, long seen as Mamata Banerjee’s safest political ground, is beginning to stir uneasy comparisons with Nandigram. In the 2021 assembly elections, her decision to contest from Nandigram ended in a dramatic setback, with Suvendu Adhikari defeating her in a high-stakes battle that reshaped the narrative of the polls and marked a symbolic leap for the Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal. Five years on, the BJP appears to be attempting a similar strategy, this time in Bhabanipur, turning what was once considered a safe seat into a potential battleground.By fielding Adhikari in Bhabanipur, the BJP has effectively redrawn the battle lines, transforming what was once a comfortable stronghold into a high-pressure contest. The move is not just electoral but deeply symbolic, aimed at challenging Banerjee’s authority at the very seat that has repeatedly secured her political survival. For the chief minister, Bhabanipur is more than just another constituency, it is where she rebuilt her mandate after Nandigram. Now, it risks becoming a stage for history to repeat itself.The parallels are hard to ignore. Just as Nandigram became a referendum on Banerjee’s leadership in 2021, Bhabanipur is shaping up as a test of her enduring grip over urban Bengal. The question looming over the contest is whether the BJP has managed to recreate a similar political trap, or whether Banerjee can once again turn a moment of vulnerability into a decisive comeback.
From fortress to frontline
Bhabanipur’s transformation from a TMC bastion to a competitive seat reflects shifting political currents. In the 2021 bypoll, Banerjee secured over 71 per cent of the vote, defeating BJP’s Priyanka Tibrewal by a margin exceeding 58,000 votes. Yet, recent trends suggest cracks in that dominance.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC’s lead in the segment narrowed to around 6,500 votes, while the BJP made gains across several municipal wards. Internal party meetings now reflect a sense of urgency. TMC national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee has set an ambitious target—winning Bhabanipur by over 60,000 votes—and warned cadres against complacency.The constituency’s evolving demographics add complexity. With roughly 76 per cent Hindu voters (split between Bengali and non-Bengali communities) and 24 per cent minorities, Bhabanipur reflects a microcosm of urban Kolkata. Migrant populations from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Odisha further shape electoral behaviour, making outcomes less predictable than before.
SIR row and shifting voter base
A key flashpoint in the current contest is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls. According to party sources, over 40,000 names have been deleted, with thousands more under adjudication. This has triggered a political storm.Banerjee has accused the Centre, led by Narendra Modi, of interference in the state’s electoral process, warning that administrative changes could affect poll fairness. She has also promised legal support to voters whose names may have been removed.The data suggests a complex picture: while a large share of deleted voters are non-minorities, a significant proportion of those under scrutiny belong to minority communities. Combined, the figures point to an almost even split, fuelling competing narratives from both sides.Adding to the uncertainty is Ward 77, once considered a TMC stronghold due to its minority voter base. Political observers now describe it as “fluid”, indicating that even traditional vote banks may not be entirely secure.
A seat steeped in political history
Bhabanipur’s importance goes beyond current electoral arithmetic. Once a Congress bastion represented by leaders like Siddhartha Shankar Ray, the constituency has mirrored Bengal’s political evolution over decades.After disappearing from the electoral map in 1972 due to delimitation, it was revived in 2011—the same year Banerjee ended the Left Front’s 34-year rule. Since then, the seat has been closely tied to her political journey. From her bypoll victory that year to her return in 2021 after the Nandigram defeat, Bhabanipur has repeatedly served as her fallback and fortress.Yet, the BJP’s decision to field Adhikari here marks a turning point. Fresh from filing nominations in Nandigram and projecting confidence of victory, he has framed the contest as part of a broader push for a “corruption-free” government in the state.As West Bengal heads into a two-phase election in April, with counting scheduled for May 4, Bhabanipur stands at the centre of the political storm. What was once a safe seat is now a test of resilience for Banerjee, and a potential launchpad for the BJP’s ambitions in Kolkata.
