NEW DELHI: Raghav Chadha’s exit from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) does not come as a surprise. Nor, perhaps, his decision to join the BJP. Raghav Chadha’s political moves were widely anticipated given his open dare to the party leadership (read Arvind Kejriwal) after being removed from the post of deputy leader in Rajya Sabha last month. But what did come as a surprise is the vengeance with which Raghav Chaddha hit back obliterating the very existence of AAP in the Upper House. Clearly, there was a lot of ground work done by Chadha before he dealt the final blow. Retrospectively, his remark “Ghayal hoon, par Ghatak hoon” after Rajya Sabha demotion was perhaps an indication of his plans vis-à-vis the AAP.Raghav Chadha did not just quit AAP, he ensured the merger of Kejriwal’s party with the BJP in the Upper House by garnering the support of 2/3rd of AAP MPs – 7 out of 10 to be exact. Addressing a press conference after announcing the revolt, Chadda said: “We have decided that we, the 2/3rd members belonging to the AAP in Rajya Sabha, exercise the provisions of the Constitution of India and merge ourselves with the BJP.”The six other MPs who have quit party include Sandeep Pathak, Ashok Mittal, Harbhajan Singh, Rajinder Gupta, Vikram Sahney and Swati Maliwal. Interestingly, the list includes Ashok Mittal, who had replaced Raghav Chadda as the deputy leader of AAP in Rajya Sabha and had hosted Arvind Kejriwal at his house in Delhi till a day ago. Mittal, who is the founder chancellor of Lovely Professional University, had to face ED raids soon after his elevation in the Upper House. Searches were also carried out at properties associated with the university and Mittal’s family members. According to reports, the ED raids were linked to a money laundering probe.The AAP, as expected, reacted very strongly to this development and accused the BJP of “Operation Lotus”, a term used to define saffron party engineered defections of political rivals. AAP leader Sanjay Singh alleged that central agencies like the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) were misused to pressure and break away AAP leaders. AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal accused the BJP of betraying Punjab, which is ruled by AAP and goes to assembly polls next year.AAP weakened in Punjab?After losing Delhi to BJP last year, AAP leaders including Arvind Kejriwal have focused on Punjab – the only state which the party governs now. Assembly elections are due in Punjab next year and Kejriwal has spent most of his time in the state planning and strategizing party’s electoral strategy with his chief minister Bhagwant Mann. Raghav Chadha had played a key role in helping the AAP win Punjab in 2022. For almost three years he was central to party’s activities in the state. However, that changed in March 2025 when Kejriwal appointed Manish Sisodia and Satyendra Jain as incharge and co-incharge of party in Punjab replacing Jarnail Singh and Raghav Chadha.So, the big question is: Will this mass exodus of MPs weaken AAP in Punjab? Has Raghav Chadha also done some ground work in the state with the AAP MLAs? Punjab chief minister and senior AAP leader Bhagwant Mann is brutal in dismissing the impact of this mass exodus.“Ginger, garlic, cumin, fenugreek powder, red chili, black pepper, and coriander—these 7 things together make the vegetable taste great, but on their own, they can’t become a ‘vegetable,’” Bhagwant Mann said yesterday.He didn’t stop there. “Let me be clear—none of them is capable of becoming even a village sarpanch on their own merit. The party is bigger than any individual. These 6-7 people who have left do not comprise Punjab. They were not mass leaders,” Mann added.Rhetoric apart, the first priority of Arvind Kejriwal and his team would be to ensure that their MLAs in Punjab stay intact. AAP has 92 MLAs in the 117-member assembly, a number huge enough to perhaps prevent any immediate threat to the Mann government. But with elections due next year, many of these MLAs would be open to exploring greener pastures with the BJP, which is trying to spread its base in the state.Can BJP gain in Punjab from AAP exodus?Well, this can be an interesting debate. The BJP, which was a junior ally of the Akalis in the state for decades, has been trying desperately to spread its base after its break-u with the Shiromani Akali Dal. The SAD quit the alliance over the two farmers’ bill and the BJP did nothing to bring it back in the fold even after junking the bills.Ever since, the BJP has relied heavily on Congress imports to make its presence felt in the state. The saffron party managed to rope in leaders like former chief minister Captain Amrinder Singh and Sunil Jhakhar besides many others in its fold. Now with Raghav Chadha at its services, the BJP would hope to get some “disgruntled” AAP leaders on its side.But will these imports be enough to propel the BJP into power in the state? Let’s have a look at the numbers:In 2017 assembly elections, the BJP won 3 seats with a vote share of 5.4%. Five years later, in 2022 the saffron party managed only 2 seats with 6.6%. The BJP poll strategists would hope that the party could do a West Bengal in Punjab. In West Bengal, the BJP increased its tally from 3 seats in 2016 to 77 seats in 2021. The party’s vote share jumped from 10.3% to 38.4%.The Congress factorSo, while the big Bengal leap would give BJP some hope, the fact is that Punjab may be different. The Congress in Punjab, unlike in West Bengal, still has a significant presence and also vote share. While the grand-old-party was reduced to 18 seats in Punjab in 2022 assembly elections, its vote share was still at 23.1%. In the 2017 elections, the Congress had won 77 seats with a vote share of 38.8% to rule the state for 5 years. However, leadership tussle involving Capt Amrinder Singh and Navjot Singh Siddhu became the nemesis for the party. Besides, the Shiromani Akali Dal also managed a vote share of 18.5% in 2022 despite the fact that it could win only 3 seats.BJP vs Congress?Given these numbers, the Congress in Punjab may be in a better position to benefit from a weakened AAP than the BJP. This is provided the grand-old-party plays it cards well and manages to effectively control infighting in the state. The BJP, on the other hand, would in all likeliness go all out to maximise its gains after roping in Raghav Chadha and other AAP MPs in the state. The saffron party can also take hope from the fact that in West Bengal also, the Congress and the Left had significance presence in 2016, but were still decimated by the saffron party.So, while AAP firefights after Raghav Chadha led coup, the BJP and the Congress would both hope to gain from the turn of events. Kejriwal and his AAP on the other hand would leave no stone unturned to play the victim card and maximise its gains from the loss of its MPs.
